World Cup 2014: 5 Lists of 5: Part 3

Part 3: Bold Predictions

1. The Netherlands will not progress past the Group Stage
The Netherlands played extremely well in South Africa, losing to Spain in the final by a single goal that did not come until the second extra time period, the 116th minute of the match. Their stay in Brazil could be much shorter. Group B features the two finalists from 2010 and fast-rising Chile, a squad that contains some highly talented players such as Arturo Vidal and Alexis Sanchez. Much hinges on the early Spain vs. Netherlands match, which I expect Spain to win. Australia is likely to be the whipping boy and lose all three matches, leaving the contest between Netherlands and Chile a key encounter. If Chile can earn a win in that match or a draw against both Spain and the Netherlands they could advance at the expense of the Dutch.

2. Belgium will advance to the Semi-Final
There are a number of scenarios that could lead to advantageous matchups for the Belgians. I expect them to win their relatively weak group of Russia, S. Korea and Algeria, and if so they could play a winnable match against Portugal, Ghana or USA (assuming Germany wins Group G). After that, their most fearsome opponent would probably be France or Argentina, but if either of them fail to win their group it could be an easier opponent such as Nigeria or Ecuador. Much would have to fall in place for this to happen, and it would be especially difficult for them to beat Argentina, but if some of the powerhouses stumble, Belgium could pounce on the opportunity.

3. Spain and Brazil will meet in the Round of 16
The winner of Group A (Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon) will face the second-place team from Group B (Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia). Both groups are loaded with talent, and will be fiercely contested. While I believe Spain and Brazil are locks to advance to the knockout stage, if one stumbles and finishes second they will face each other in the Round of 16. The pressure on Brazil is enormous, and their first match against a Croatia squad featuring a strong midfield lead by dynamo Luca Modric could present a banana peel for the hosts. Mexico is a team capable of beating or losing to anyone, and surprised everybody with a victory over the Brazilians in the final at the 2012 Olympics. If they both win their groups, they cannot meet until the final, but if the pressure gets to either team we could see the two favorites much earlier than expected.

4. All six South American countries will advance from the Group Stage
Brazil is hot in the summer, similar to South Africa. In 2010, five South American teams advanced to the knockout stage. At the 2013 Confederations Cup, held last summer in Brazil, both South American representatives, Brazil and Uruguay advanced to the semi-final.  On their home continent, these teams will be accustomed to the conditions and will have the crowds behind them. Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina and Columbia are excellent squads ranked 4-7 in the latest FIFA World Rankings, and while Uruguay’s Group D features both England and Italy, they are one of the most potent attacking squads and I fully expect them to advance. Chile will have to overcome the most difficult test in Group B with Spain and the Netherlands, but as stated previously I see them advancing at the expense of the Netherlands. That leaves Equador in Group E with recent underachievers France, a young Switzerland squad and Honduras. Equador held their own in qualifying, winning home games against Uruguay, Chile and Columbia. While it will not be the same as home field advantage (Equador’s home stadium is located in Quito, over 9,000 ft. above sea level), their conditioning and having the crowds gives them an advantage.

5. A European team will win the championship
A South American team has claimed victory each time the World Cup has been held on the continent, but that streak is in danger. The two favorites, Brazil and Argentina have some incredible players, but both squads have weaknesses. For Brazil it is their youth. They will be relying heavily on Neymar and Oscar who are playing in their first World Cup. For Argentina it is their top-heaviness. Messi, Sergio Aguero, Angel Di Maria and Gonzalo Higuain are their best players, and all four are attackers. Depth is an issue for both as well. Compared to the deep squads of Spain and Germany that boast bench players that would be superstars for almost any other country, neither Brazil nor Argentina would be able to seamlessly transition to a replacement if one of their major stars were injured or suspended. In addition, the Germany starting lineup is composed of mainly Bayern Munich stars that play together in training every day, and similarly the much of the Spain squad Barcelona players, with a few supplements from Real Madrid. This familiarity and continuity can be crucial on the biggest stage. If they can get their players to peak conditioning, even home continent advantage will not be enough to derail these frighteningly talented European juggernauts.