World Cup 2014: 5 Lists of 5: Part 3

Part 3: Bold Predictions

1. The Netherlands will not progress past the Group Stage
The Netherlands played extremely well in South Africa, losing to Spain in the final by a single goal that did not come until the second extra time period, the 116th minute of the match. Their stay in Brazil could be much shorter. Group B features the two finalists from 2010 and fast-rising Chile, a squad that contains some highly talented players such as Arturo Vidal and Alexis Sanchez. Much hinges on the early Spain vs. Netherlands match, which I expect Spain to win. Australia is likely to be the whipping boy and lose all three matches, leaving the contest between Netherlands and Chile a key encounter. If Chile can earn a win in that match or a draw against both Spain and the Netherlands they could advance at the expense of the Dutch.

2. Belgium will advance to the Semi-Final
There are a number of scenarios that could lead to advantageous matchups for the Belgians. I expect them to win their relatively weak group of Russia, S. Korea and Algeria, and if so they could play a winnable match against Portugal, Ghana or USA (assuming Germany wins Group G). After that, their most fearsome opponent would probably be France or Argentina, but if either of them fail to win their group it could be an easier opponent such as Nigeria or Ecuador. Much would have to fall in place for this to happen, and it would be especially difficult for them to beat Argentina, but if some of the powerhouses stumble, Belgium could pounce on the opportunity.

3. Spain and Brazil will meet in the Round of 16
The winner of Group A (Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon) will face the second-place team from Group B (Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia). Both groups are loaded with talent, and will be fiercely contested. While I believe Spain and Brazil are locks to advance to the knockout stage, if one stumbles and finishes second they will face each other in the Round of 16. The pressure on Brazil is enormous, and their first match against a Croatia squad featuring a strong midfield lead by dynamo Luca Modric could present a banana peel for the hosts. Mexico is a team capable of beating or losing to anyone, and surprised everybody with a victory over the Brazilians in the final at the 2012 Olympics. If they both win their groups, they cannot meet until the final, but if the pressure gets to either team we could see the two favorites much earlier than expected.

4. All six South American countries will advance from the Group Stage
Brazil is hot in the summer, similar to South Africa. In 2010, five South American teams advanced to the knockout stage. At the 2013 Confederations Cup, held last summer in Brazil, both South American representatives, Brazil and Uruguay advanced to the semi-final.  On their home continent, these teams will be accustomed to the conditions and will have the crowds behind them. Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina and Columbia are excellent squads ranked 4-7 in the latest FIFA World Rankings, and while Uruguay’s Group D features both England and Italy, they are one of the most potent attacking squads and I fully expect them to advance. Chile will have to overcome the most difficult test in Group B with Spain and the Netherlands, but as stated previously I see them advancing at the expense of the Netherlands. That leaves Equador in Group E with recent underachievers France, a young Switzerland squad and Honduras. Equador held their own in qualifying, winning home games against Uruguay, Chile and Columbia. While it will not be the same as home field advantage (Equador’s home stadium is located in Quito, over 9,000 ft. above sea level), their conditioning and having the crowds gives them an advantage.

5. A European team will win the championship
A South American team has claimed victory each time the World Cup has been held on the continent, but that streak is in danger. The two favorites, Brazil and Argentina have some incredible players, but both squads have weaknesses. For Brazil it is their youth. They will be relying heavily on Neymar and Oscar who are playing in their first World Cup. For Argentina it is their top-heaviness. Messi, Sergio Aguero, Angel Di Maria and Gonzalo Higuain are their best players, and all four are attackers. Depth is an issue for both as well. Compared to the deep squads of Spain and Germany that boast bench players that would be superstars for almost any other country, neither Brazil nor Argentina would be able to seamlessly transition to a replacement if one of their major stars were injured or suspended. In addition, the Germany starting lineup is composed of mainly Bayern Munich stars that play together in training every day, and similarly the much of the Spain squad Barcelona players, with a few supplements from Real Madrid. This familiarity and continuity can be crucial on the biggest stage. If they can get their players to peak conditioning, even home continent advantage will not be enough to derail these frighteningly talented European juggernauts.

World Cup 2014: 5 Lists of 5: Part 2

Part 2: Players to Watch
 

1. Eden Hazard, Belgium

Eden Hazard is the shining star of the fast-rising Belgium team that cruised through the qualifying rounds undefeated. The 23-year old Hazard plays on the left side as part of a three-pronged attack for his English club Chelsea, and in a similar position (a central attacking midfielder) for Belgium. Eden was named the Young Player of the Year in England by the Professional Footballers’ Association in recognition of a stellar 2013/2014 season where he scored 14 goals and assisted 7 others.

Hazard is small in stature, but has explosive speed and quickness. His control is outstanding, giving him the ability to weave between defenders as though the ball were welded to his feet. He is very creative and reads the game well, often baiting defenders into ill-timed lunges or simply blowing by them with his electric pace. As a wide player, his first instinct is often to set up teammates with good opportunities in front of goal, but he is not afraid to shoot either.

Hazard’s dribbling and passing skills are already among the best in the world, and if he can continue to improve, particularly his shooting, he could find himself mentioned in the same breath as Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.

2. Yaya Toure, Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast is a team with plenty of tall, powerful players such as Didier Drogba and Wilfried Bony, but at 6’3”, 175 lbs, central midfielder Yaya Toure is their intimidating colossus in the middle of the field and the engine that drives the team. There are few players in the modern game built like Toure, and most are defenders as they do not possess his passing skills or uncanny knack for scoring goals.

In the past season for English champions Manchester City, Toure notched 20 goals and 9 assists, a total any striker would be proud of. What makes it all the more impressive is Yaya did this while operating from a deep position – putting in tough, bone-crunching tackles, winning aerial duels, making interceptions and harrying opponents into giving up the ball, then keeping possession and feeding forward players to start new attacks. He completed the most passes of any player in the league by a wide margin. On the offensive, Toure has a thunderbolt shot, can score with either foot, and is especially dangerous from free kicks and penalty kicks.

Toure is 32 years old and this will be his third World Cup, along with fellow veterans Drogba and brother Kolo. Their experience will be key if the Ivory Coast are to move beyond their disappointing group stage exits in 2006 and 2010.

3. Thiago Silva, Brazil

The Brazil squad is known more for their attacking play, but team captain and defensive rock Thiago Silva is the foundation they are built upon. At 29, he is widely regarded as one of the top defenders in the world. He shows his leadership on the field by organizing the defense and making sure everyone is on the same page and maintaining their responsibilities. He can mark any type of attacker out of the game as he has the strength and height to take on bigger forwards and win aerial battles, as well as the nimbleness, positioning sense and tackling ability to keep smaller, quicker players from threatening his goal. While he will occasionally chip in offensively with a goal here and there, most often from set-pieces, his unwavering determination is on preventing goals.

Silva plays for French club Paris St. Germain, and won the French league title with them the past two seasons, as well as the French Cup in their most recent campaign. He also captained Brazil to victory in the Confederations Cup last summer, where they beat Spain 3-0 in the final. With Brazil playing on home turf in 2014, emotions will be high. The crowds will be demanding nothing less than victory in every match, and it will be Silva’s responsibility to keep his cool and help his teammates focus on the task at hand.

4. Luis Suarez, Uruguay

Luis Suarez has made news many times in his career, often for the wrong reasons. On two separate occasions he has been banned for biting an opponent. Yes, biting - with his teeth. He also received an eight match ban for racially abusing France and Manchester United defender Patrice Evra, and a one-match ban for making an obscene gesture to opposing fans. Many will also remember his intentional hand-ball to prevent a certain goal by Ghana in the dying seconds of extra-time at the World Cup 2010, resulting in a red card. Uruguay miraculously went on to win that match after the resulting penalty kick was missed. With all this negative press, one might think his confidence and form would suffer, but Suarez has been nothing short of spectacular this past season for English club Liverpool.

At age 27, Suarez will arrive in Brazil as joint top-scorer in European domestic leagues, tied at 31 goals with Cristiano Ronaldo. Suarez is simply ruthless in front of goal. He shoots often, puts his shots on target at an impressive rate, and scores frequently. For Liverpool this season he attempted 181 shots, put 81 of them on target, and scored 31. In 2013/2014 for Uruguay he had an even better success rate, shooting 56 times, with 27 on target and 16 goals. Suarez is the definition of a complete forward. He can score with his head, or shoot from distance, but most importantly he can play in a wider position and use his speed, exceptional first touch and guile to beat his direct opponent and provide excellent chances for his teammates. He tallied 12 assists in the Premier League this season, the second-most of any player, and added 3 more for Uruguay.

Suarez suffered a knee injury and underwent surgery that will prevent him from practicing with his squad in the buildup to the tournament, and may limit his involvement during the Group Stage, but he is one of the hottest players at the moment, and if Uruguay can make it out of a difficult group that includes England and Italy, he should be able to make his mark in the knockout phase. Hopefully it will not be a bite mark.

5. Thomas Muller, Germany

Some will remember Thomas Muller from the 2010 World Cup where at age 20 he took home the Golden Boot and Best Young Player awards. In South Africa, Muller racked up 5 goals and 3 assists in Germany’s campaign that ended with a semi-final defeat to eventual winners Spain (three other players also had 5 goals but Thomas was awarded the Golden Boot based on the assists tiebreaker). Amazingly, Muller scored with every shot he put on target. It will be a tough feat to replicate, but since 2010 he has only gotten better.

In that span his club team Bayern Munich has won every major trophy possible, including an incredible 2012/2013 season where they were undefeated in the German league, en route to the championship. They also claimed the German Cup, and the most prestigious of all club competitions, the UEFA Champions League. Muller is a very versatile player with a rare blend of skills. Equally comfortable out wide or as a central forward, his combination of height, pace, power and technique are too much for defenders. One moment he is burying a towering header into the top corner of the net, and the next he is streaking toward goal on a counter-attack before unselfishly setting up a teammate for an easy tap-in. His style is unorthodox, and not always pretty but put simply, he gets the job done. For Bayern in 2012/2013 he scored 22 goals (including 8 in the Champions League) and added 15 assists. He followed up that performance in 2013/2014 with 26 goals (5 in the Champions League) and 12 assists.

Perhaps the most valuable aspect of Muller’s game is his ability to step up in big matches. He thrives in knock-out competitions, and his enthusiasm, energy and focus are infectious. He will likely be used as a central forward in a Germany lineup that boasts some of the best passers and creative players in the world, so his chances will come. Already a veteran at age 24, Muller will undoubtedly be looking to build on his impressive international legacy.